
Agricultural markets as we keep saying are dynamic and keep changing every day. The dependence of production on weather affects the whole chain. January and February experienced no rains as usual with the expected long rains in March delaying up to April.
The delay in rains led to the drying of most seasonal rivers which are sources of water used for irrigation by most farmers. This led to a decline in quantities produced and supplied in the market. It also led to a steady increase in both retail and wholesale market prices.
The case was worsened by a fuel shortage experienced in the country in the month of March. The shortage of fuel and increase in its prices have increased the cost of transport by over 3% which in return increased retail prices.

Farmers who had cabbages, onions, tomatoes and potatoes recorded profits as prices soar by more than 50% despite the high cost of fuels and fertilizers. With now most parts of the country experiencing long rains, farmers are busy planting cabbages, tomatoes and onions with the hopes of enjoying the high prices in the market currently. Unfortunately, these prices are not sustainable and already we are seeing a gradual decline.
Most of these farmers will be harvesting in late June and early July this year. What this means is that, by then, the supply will increase and prices of these commodities will fall to a level that farmers cannot break even. Those farmers with produce to be harvested before June may enjoy some profit as prices will not have fallen that much.
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However, we may experience high supply but other factors that affect the distribution of the produce like poor inaccessible roads and fuel shortage may lead to high post-harvest losses. The inability of most farmers and brokers to deliver the product to the market may stabilize the market prices just slightly above the break-even point.
A high shortage of milk was experienced in the country which can be associated with the prolonged dry season and the high cost of concentrates in the country. Nonetheless, with the onset of long rains, the supply is expected to resume normal by the second week of May. The cost of dairy farming will remain high as the costs of concentrates continue to soar high.
Most people turned to pig farming after massive job losses in 2021 due to covid-19 as it is cheap to start and manage. Most of these pigs were maturing in late 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 leading to low prices of pigs products.
The high cost of layer feeds has caused most farmers to abandon layer farming causing a short supply of eggs in the market. The egg prices were not sufficient enough to sustain which is a similar case to broiler chickens.
Way forward
In conclusion, Capsicums, onions and potatoes prices still seem to be promising in the second quarter of this year. If you are planning to plant any crop currently; carrots, tomatoes, kales, and cabbages may not be an option as all factors indicate a decline in prices.
For dairy, pigs and poultry farming is still uncertain and we are observing closely.
Cereals are most promising, especially wheat and maize. we expect prices especially for wheat to remain high the whole of this year globally due to the Ukraine and Russia war.