The success of the agricultural industry depends on policies which may even not be related to it at all.
Consumer perception, taste, preference, purchasing power, fiscal policies and of course weather changes definitely influence farmers’ ability to produce and sell.
Onions
There has been an influx of Tanzania onions from May 2022 leading to prices falling. This supply is expected to decline from September 2022 when onion farmers who will be harvesting then may enjoy a slight increase in prices.
This will be followed by another fall in prices in December and January caused by high supply as most farmers are planning to plant in September-October 2022.
However, the level of supply will depend on how good the short rains will be as most farmers depend on rainfall for their production. If the short rains will not be good, the prices might be stable slightly above the breakeven point.
In this situation, only superior quality onions will be able to withstand these effects. So ensure you produce a good onion in terms of shape, colours, size and pungency.
Tomato
It has been a bad season for tomato farmers since the start of the year. The cost of pest disease management and irrigation has been on the rise as market prices stagnate.
The unfortunate thing is that; most large-scale farmers depend on rivers which are drying up to irrigate their farms leading to crop failure.
This has led them to scale down into a small manageable land size. As production is decreasing, the absorption rate is also decreasing which explains the stagnation of market prices.
However, we expect a rise in prices in October-November as a result of extremely low supply due to the high number of farmers shifting from tomato farmers.
Cabbages
Cabbage farmers have been making slight profit margins as most crops did not perform well due to poor rains and extremely cold weather that saw farmers lose their crops to black rot. We expect the prices to increase in October-November due to the low supply by a few farmers doing irrigation currently.
Carrots
Carrot is another interesting crop that saw its prices shoot o high up to seven thousand per bag mainly caused by crop destruction by Powderly mildew associated with cold weather plus the high cost of production. However, these prices have since fallen just above the breakeven point and are expected to remain so till the end of the year.
Capsicums
The shortage of green capsicums has seen its prices rise up to KES 150 per kilo for three months consecutively. This is expected to continue in the month of September and fall gradually as those who planted in July start to harvest.
The good news is that the farmers who are planting capsicums are not many and though the prices will fall but not that much. The case is similar to coloured capsicums.
Maize
The high cost of fertilizers and delayed rainfall during the 2021 crop season has led to the market shortage. This has caused the prices of maize to rise to almost seven thousand Kenyan shilling per 90-kilo bag.
2022 crop season is not different as farmers expect low yield since most of them did not use fertilizers which were worsened by low rainfall.
However, the harvest by small-scale farmers; regardless of how small will reduce the demand for maize pushing the price of maize down. The government is expected to implement policies to cushion consumers against high maize floor prices which may also push prices down.
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What farmers should expect
The government is expected to inject some subsidies to lower fertilizer and fuels in the last quarter of this year. If this happens, it will lower the cost of production and distribution.
The short rains distributions in October will also affect market prices in December and January when most farmers will be harvesting.
Farmers should proceed in their farming with caution since the prices will remain very unstable in the last quarter of this year.
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