2022 was one of the bad years for farmers. Drought, the high cost of fertilizers, and the influx of imports led to low market absorption, leading to massive losses and pushing many out of farming.
Drought in most months led to massive crop failures. Most of the crops planted lately after the November short rains and expected to be harvested in February are drying up prematurely due to water stress. This is a loss to farmers.
Unfortunately, the situation in 2023 might not be different, as evidenced in January. Most products are slugging slowly in the market, and the drought persists. How will various products trade in 2023? Some will make massive profits, while others will troll in losses.
Tomato
90% of farmers who planted tomatoes in 2022, especially last quarter, made massive losses as market prices fell way below the production costs. Despite crop failures experienced by most tomato farmers, supply was still high and consumers had to enjoy cheap tomatoes.
As usual, farmers tend to run away from an enterprise where they made losses previously to one with high prices currently but end up in massive losses again. Most farmers have vowed not to use tomatoes again. This will result in scarcity, which, in return, pushes prices up.
Prices will continue rising to a peak in March and then stagnating until July. If all factors remain constant, with imports out of the question, farmers are likely to make some profits. But there will be some imports, and the high prices won’t be sustainable.
Onions
Market prices for onions started high in January 2022 and later fell due to an influx of onion imports from Tanzania, and the effect has yet to be recovered. 2023 won’t be different, as prices will remain low for most of the year.
Cabbages
Cabbage prices were a bit more stable in most of 2023, though there were a few months when they were low. The drought experienced for most of the year stabilized the supply and prices.
This year, 2023, though there will be some months with good rainfall, the majority will be dry. Cabbage prices are expected to be high in the dry months with little fall in the rainy months. However, this will only remain true if supply remains constant like last year.
It is expected that most of the farmers who lost money on tomatoes will shift to cabbage farming, increasing the supply and lowering prices.
Potato
Potato prices had a stable season before the 2022 election, then fell in September, steeply increased in October and November, and stabilized again in December. In 2023, prices have been stable so far. They will increase from February to May and later fall in August before starting to rise again in September.
Maize
Maize prices will be high in 2022, and so will the cost of production. However, this year, it will be different as prices are expected to remain low mainly due to the government’s decision to allow imports of maize.
Coffee and tea
The coffee market was completely unstable, affected by world economic changes, fertilizer supplies, and drought. This year, prices have started to rise and will not be sustainable. As the world experiences an economic slowdown, consumption may reduce, leading to price declines. Any government interference in the sale and trading of coffee may also hurt prices.
Macadamia, avocados
Since these three products depend purely on exports, this year’s prices will likely be low due to the expected economic slowdown.
The general prices for export agricultural products are expected to fall compared to last year.
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