Rot or Profit? Why Holding Your Farm Produce Could Cost You Everything
Kelvin Wairimu 
In the world of agriculture, there’s often a buzz surrounding the notion of striking it rich quickly, especially when a few fortunate farmers find themselves in the right place at the right time.
These farmers, who manage to harvest their crops during periods of low market supply coupled with surging prices, can earn extraordinary profits. Their success story paints an alluring picture of farming, luring many into believing they can easily replicate that success.
After enduring a prolonged slump in onion prices, many farmers felt disheartened and abandoned their crops. However, the 2022-2023 growing season brought a glimmer of hope as onion prices surged dramatically, driven by crop losses caused by heavy rainfall.
This led to a significant drop in market supply, pushing prices at the farmgate to nearly Sh. 200 per kilogram. Those lucky enough to cultivate bulb onions during this period found themselves cashing in on what seemed like a goldmine, with some making millions.
Until then, the lowest market price had hovered between Sh. 100 and Sh. 140, marking a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that many failed to recognize.
Initially, a sense of hesitation gripped farmers, and many were cautious about entering the onion market. However, as time passed and the anticipated price drop failed to materialize, a wave of enthusiasm swept through the farming community.
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By August 2023, farmers began busily preparing their fields for the upcoming onion planting season. Vast tracts of land were converted into onion farms, and the seeds of popular bulb onion varieties quickly disappeared from the shelves as demand soared.
The implications of this massive influx of planting would soon reverberate throughout the market in 2024.
Predictably, as the new year rolled in, bulb onions flooded the local markets in overwhelming quantities, both from local harvests and imports from neighboring Tanzania.
Read Also: Onions farming in Kenya; How to harvest at least 20 tons per acre
The once-promising prices began to plummet, starting a downward slide from Sh. 180 to a shocking Sh. 80 per kilogram. Farmers who had previously cashed in on high prices began to hold onto their crops, hoping for a rebound.
However, little did they know that market prices were not on their side—prices continued to slip, dropping below Sh. 50 per kilo as time passed.
Despite the grim reality, a few stubborn farmers clung to hope, unwilling to part with their produce in anticipation of a miraculous price recovery. As they watched in despair, tonnes of harvested bulb onions began to rot in their storage facilities, spoiled from neglect and miscalculation.
With the harvesting season coinciding with an influx of fresh produce from other farmers, brokers naturally gravitated toward the fresh goods, leaving stored produce out in the cold.
The perishability of bulb onions meant that a considerable percentage of the crop went to waste, leading to devastating financial losses for many farmers who had once been hopeful.
By June 2024, the situation grew dire, as farmgate prices sagged to an astonishingly low Sh. 30 per kilogram. Those who had steadfastly refused to sell at Sh. 80 found themselves completely unable to unload their produce, even on credit.
For many, the heartbreaking conclusion was watching their carefully stored bulb onions rot beyond salvage, their dreams of profit turning to dust. It was painful to witness their hard work and investments vanish, reduced to nothing more than compost due to a combination of pride and misguided expectations.
Advice for New Farmers
To seasoned farmers, it’s clear that high prices are never a guarantee in this unpredictable industry. The reality is that in the realm of farming, sales must align with market conditions. Holding onto perishable products for too long can lead to more profound losses than selling them off right away.
For those new to farming, it’s crucial to understand that financial windfalls do not come overnight; the road to profitability is often long and winding, even for the most dedicated farmers.
Moreover, market prices are beyond your control. While farming can indeed be profitable, it is vital to set realistic expectations—gains typically range from 10% to 20% during normal circumstances, while the possibility of losing the entirety of your investment looms large.
Therefore, if you receive an offer that covers your costs and provides a reasonable profit margin, it’s wise to accept the deal with gratitude. Holding onto fresh, perishable produce in hopes of inflated prices is a risky endeavour that often results in painful losses.
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